so I haven't been posting or playing poker much recently. family stuff for the most part as my mom had a major surgery and I've been helping her through it.

in any case, I figure I'd make a small write up on one of the best UFC's ever. Only going to comment on the fights I saw.

Dong Hyun Kim vs Jason Tan - Kim by TKO round 3.

I really didn't know either of these two fighters but Kim came into the fight undefeated at 9-0-1 with all but one of his fights in the DEEP promotion which is, if anything, competitive. So I figure he's probably pretty good and he sure didn't disappoint. He was comfortable and crisp on the feet and absolutely ruinous (good adjective?) on the ground. He would do almost all of his damage on the ground with elbows, either from half guard, side mount, or full mount. Finally in the third round, after just a ton of accumulated damage, tan would be knocked out from a few elbows on the ground.

Yoshiyuki Yoshida vs War machine - Yoshida by anaconda choke round 1.

Very clever way of locking up an anaconda choke. I really don't think he was trying for a guillotine initially I just don't think he wanted to roll over the arm, the north south setup was very very clearly an anaconda. Yoshida did very well otherwise in what little we got to see of him with excellent control in the clinch and judo that I'm sure made Fox wet . He's also got a win over Kikuchi so, like Kim, I'm eager to see what he'll end up doing in the UFC.

Machida vs Ortiz - Machida by UD (3x 30-27).

If it wasn't clear mma has passed Ortiz up, this should leave no doubt. He's big and strong, well rounded and athletic and there was a time that that combination alone would win you a UFC championship. Machida fought very well with an excellent gameplan and Ortiz wasn't able to bully him around so he spent most of the three rounds doing a whole lot of nothing. Near the end of the third Machida landed a vicious knee to the ribs and was almost able to finish tito but tito is tough and he recovered almost locking up a triangle but he wasn't able to hold it. For tito, he's had a great career and I would not be upset at all for this to be his last fight. I really hope he doesn't end up fighting against bums for another 5 years.

Wandy vs Jardine - Wandy by KO round 1.

I remember being really torn on this fight. On one hand, Jardine has been doing very well since losing to Houston and Wandy seems over the hill. On the other hand, this matchup greatly favors Wandy, especially considering the fighters he lost to prior. Chuck and Mirko are both counter punchers while Jardine is more of a toe-to-toe brawler much in the same way Rampage is (I remember me and fox talking about chuck vs jardine in this way, Jardine is basically a poorman's rampage). While Wandy clearly struggles against counter punchers that are willing to keep him at a distance, he absolutely devours brawlers. My friend I was watching the fights with asked me who I thought would win and I told him a few years ago Wandy would crush Jardine but now I didn't know. Silly me for doubting. In typical wandy fashion, he ends up landing 3 looping hooks before jardine is even able to hit the ground. Wandy then pounced on him and smashed him into oblivion.

B.J. Penn vs Sherk - Penn by TKO round 3.

Sherk starts off the match with a somewhat half hearted takedown attempt and over the next 15 minutes he wouldn't attempt another takedown at all. Now, I've said it before, BJ penn is easily the best fighter I've ever seen at using his bjj as takedown defense but the most intriguing thing about this fight was that this was something sherk would have to overcome anyway. Nevertheless, the rest of the fight would be spent standing and while sherk was landing he wasn't doing any damage and penn was ripping him apart with solid jabs and right straights. This fight reminded me a lot about Fox's old blog post about footwork and how guys like sherk struggle to do damage with their strikes because they have terrible footwork (probably from years of wrestling). This was clearly the difference in the fight and it really began showing not only on their faces but as the fight continued sherk was getting more and more tense and panicky while bj penn couldn't have looked more comfortable. Finally at the end of the third round, bj pushes sherk back and in sheer frustration sherk bounces off the cage figuring bj was too far to do anything about it. Well, he wasn't, and he placed a beautiful flying knee right on sherks noggin and would pound on sherk until the bell. The ref would then call the fight as sherk couldn't continue.

After the fight, sherk said he felt comfortable standing and was hoping to wear penn down before pouncing later on. I don't think anyone would disagree with the thought...sherks gameplan should revolve around wearing penn out and looking to win in the fourth or fifth. But how he went about it was just terrible. I really wonder just how easy it is to get caught up in the flow of a fight. I mean, sherk can feel penn's punches and they weren't dropping him and even more importantly he can feel his punches getting through and hitting penn. his face is likely numb so he can't easily tell just how much damage he's taken and it has to be really frustrating to land and not have any visible evidence of damage. Not to mention his pride had to already be hurting from circumstances up until this fight so the longer the fight was standing the harder it would be to swallow his pride and avoid a standing battle by taking the fight to the ground. His gameplan should have revolved around smothering penn against the cage and dragging him to the ground every chance he gets but, for whatever reason, he got caught up in the fight and ended up spending 15 minutes boxing a clealry superior boxer.


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Myself and Fox had a fairly lengthy discussion a while back about how a fighter cannot expect to be world class in all facets of mma so he must pick and choose from various martial arts to create a working fighting style. One thing I love about mma is that because of this, mma itself is a true artform that rewards creativity. An offshoot of this is gameplanning and something I've noticed over the past few years in mma that, as the skill gap between fighters has shortened and any fighter worth a damn is an "mmaist" and not just a one trick pony, gameplans are playing a huge role and many fighters shortcomings can be traced to this. So my thoughts on the event are going to be based on this.

-It was tough going for hironaka in the beginning of the fight as he couldn't get goulet down but then he floors goulet with a well placed left and almost finishes the fight before the end of the round. He probably stole round 1 on the judges score cards and more importantly, he's forced goulet to respect his standup so it should be ezmode setting up his takedowns for the 2nd and 3rd rounds and cruising to either a sub win or an ez decision...right? wrong. whether it be bad gameplanning or just getting caught up in the moment, hironaka takes what should have been a huge advantage and turns it into a disadvantage and tries to brawl with goulet.

-I stated in my earlier blog post that herman simply would not win a ground battle with maia but he should be able to keep the fight standing if he can avoid getting sucked into a ground battle when maia pulls guard. Unfortunately for him, that's exactly what happened. He held out longer than I thought he would (due mostly to a couple ugly mistakes from maia) but the gap between the two on the ground is like night and day. For maia, this fight shows he still needs to work on adapting his bjj to mma as he wasn't controlling posture very well (not as big a deal in grappling as it is in mma) and he lost mount in the first round way too easy but he's improving. For herman, I was really shocked he got sucked into a ground fight this easy, being from Team Quest I'd think he'd know that he needs to avoid the ground at all costs but when you've trained so long to be a top position ground fighter it's not something you can easily avoid.

-Part of me doesn't even want to comment on Starnes vs Quarry but it was probably the 2nd biggest thing to happen on the night so I will. Quarry looked very good and much more explosive than I've seen him in the past, he still gets hit way too much in the standup but at least this time it looked as if he would be landing a lot more with good combos. For kalib...well, he said he broke his foot early on in the first round and nate's leg kicks tore up his thigh, he figured he wasn't going to be winning the fight with the injuries so he just didn't want to get hurt worse. Now...back when I took bjj I would break toes all the time and actually once did break a bone in my foot and it hurts really fucking bad but it's not as debilitating as you might think and even still, it's a pretty lousy excuse especially considering just how agile he was in running away from quarry. Fact is Fox is right, he has the mental toughness and fortitude of a 4 year old girl and I'm happy he's out of the UFC. A good friend of mine also pointed out on another forum that this could very well have been a dive and given the evidence from the fight as well as the fact that he hates dana, hates his ufc contract, makes 10k a fight, and intended to leave the UFC after this fight anyway...it seems pretty likely. I pointed out in my previous blog post I was shocked at how much of a dog kalib was, what better to skew the lines than a few huge bets on nate? It's all speculation of course but it's definitely worth an investigation.

-Franklin didn't look great vs lutter but he didn't look bad either. This isn't a fight he loses much at all but after giving up his back in the clinch (wtf) he was in a lot of trouble but his escape from the armbar was great (that escape is why you need to trap the other arm as well for a perfect armbar) and it would seem that lutters conditioning problems aren't just about the weight he has to cut. Franklin is now stuck in the same spot that hughes and liddell...all three are going to be able to beat most contenders but they just can't beat the champ. As for lutter, if he improves his conditioning I think he could be a force at 185 as his takedowns are a lot better than I thought they were.

-GSP's gameplan was brilliant. He basically decided to turn into sean sherk for the fight and serra clearly wasn't prepared for it. His top position was very patient and position oriented...he never looked to cause damage until he had the position secured and he would never allow himself to remain in serra's guard. he always kept his upper body on top of serra and really wore him out by never giving serra room to relax or catch his breath. I hope serra moves down to 155 instead of chasing a rubber match as his power and skill would give a lot of fighters a ton of problems...serra is pretty much a bigger, stronger, more skilled hermes franca and franca is a great fighter in his own right.

All in all, the event wasn't that great but it was fun enough. GSP is a monster, quarry is looking great, and Maia is brilliant on the ground. Most importantly, it's time to shift focus to bj vs sherk :D!


Comments (10)

Compared to past and future UFC cards, this event is pretty lousy. Still, there are some pretty interesting fights.

GSP vs Matt Serra:

While GSP should be the favorite here and their first fight was something of a fluke, there's no denying serra is a very difficult matchup for GSP. GSP wins his fights because of his tremendous wrestling, something he can't take advantage of vs serra because of how great serra is all around on the ground. GSP is going to have to be very patient and look to pick serra apart from distance, taking advantage of serra's height...this just isn't the kind of guy GSP should look to run over. For serra, he'll need to keep the distance close to negate any striking advantage GSP has, and look to setup any takedowns he can muster. If serra can get GSP respecting his hands enough he should be able to get a takedown or two. Even though GSP probably wins, if you can get serra at +380 or better that would be a great bet.

Rich Franklin vs Travis Lutter:

This is a matchup that Rich usually dominates. he has superior wrestling and athleticism than lutter with a huge advantage in the striking dept. I think Rich wins this fight 9 times out of 10 or more so even though he's sitting at -350 on most sites i think it is a good bet. For Lutter, somehow he's going to need to get rich on the ground, I don't think it happens in the clinch and if he tries to strike with rich he's going to be KO'd so I think his best bet may be to shoot in and try to switch through Rich's sprawl or even just pull a high guard or pull guard and look for a sweep. Even then, Rich has a good ground game so getting top position isn't going to give him the win...he's going to need to fight the perfect fight and really concentrate on winning rounds rather than risking losing position by forcing a sub.

Kalib Starnes vs Nate Quarry:

I'm not too sure why, but it looks like Kalib is a pretty big dog in this fight. I don't know if I missed the boat on what Nate is capable of but this fight seems very close to me and I'm inclined to give a slight edge to Kalib. Nate has a slight advantage with strikes and wrestling but I think Kalib's edge on the ground is pretty big...mix that in with the fact that Nate is very weak with his standup defense and I think it should be relatively easy for Kalib to set up his takedowns with some good striking. Nate has heavy hands though so if Kalib starts to struggle to get the fight on the ground he'll be in a whole lot of trouble. Another big factor in this fight is the fact that Nate has fought one single time in the past 2 1/2 years...potential cage rust makes me like Kalib even more. If the odds were even on this fight I'd probably recommend staying away but right now Kalib is over +200 on every site (with his highest being +271 on pinnacle) so i think this should be an autobet.

Charles McCarthy vs Michael Bisping:

Bisping was one of the most overhyped fighters in the UFC but after his controversial win over Hammill and loss to evans it's died down quite a bit. on the other hand McCarthy really hasn't ever done anything and while his ground game is good, he isn't solid at all in other facets. Bisping is superior to McCarthy in pretty much every way and will likely TKO him so even though I don't like putting money on overhyped unproven fighters this just isn't a fight bisping is going to lose very often at all. If you can somehow find Bisping better than -300 then it's probably a pretty good bet.

Mark Bocek vs Mac Danzig:

I don't know much about Bocek but Danzig is a very solid all around fighter. It seems likely to me that Bocek is going to try to shoot in or takedown mac down, fail, and probably end up TKO'd or subbed for his troubles. Danzig is also coming into this fight as an overwhelming favorite so I'd avoid putting money on him, if you have some reason to think Bocek has a good chance in this fight then he's probably a good bet just based on the odds you'll be getting.


That's it for the main card fights, next up is the undercard guys which I don't have any odds for so I'll go strictly on how I think the outcome will be.


Joe Doerkson vs Jason MacDonald:

Why this is an undercard fight I have no idea at all. These two guys are very similar to eachother in how they like to fight and I expect it to be a war on the ground. Because MacDonald is the stronger of the two, I expect him to find himself in top position more often than not so I give the edge to him but Doerkson is more than capable off of his back and can easily give MacDonald fits, if not sub him. This fight may come down to who can control the standup, in which case again I give a slight edge to the taller and stronger MacDonald.

Jason Day vs Alan Belcher:

I don't know who Jason Day is, apparently this is his first profession mma fight? I don't know where he comes from so I can't really comment on how I see the fight going down except I don't recognize the name from any major bjj or grappling events. Alan belcher isn't really the type to take advantage of that though, so all I can really say is Belcher probably wins because of experience alone.

Ed Herman vs Demian Maia:

Another fight that should be on the main card. Maia happens to be one of the top 10 best bjj practitioners in the world, regardless of weight class, so at 185 unless your name happens to be Ronaldo de Souza if you're on the ground with maia, whether you're on top or he's on top, you're in some trouble. Herman's advantage in wrestling is going to be both a good and bad thing. Good because he has the tools to keep Maia from taking the fight to the ground but bad because it will be easy for him to get sucked into a ground fight if Maia pulls guard. For herman, the more boring he can make this fight the better. If I were his trainer I'd have him watch andrei vs werdum over and over again so he knows to do everything he possibly can to keep maia from getting close even if that means running halfway across the cage to avoid him. If Maia shows competence with his striking it's going to be an ugly night for Herman. Those that know me know what I'm going to pick, Maia by sub rd 1.

Rich Clementi vs Sam Stout:

This should be a very fun fight. Stout has the clear advantage in standup, especially where technique is concerned while Clementi has the clear advantage on the ground. As Stout hasn't shown me a great TD defense I give the edge to Clementi but if Stout is game on the ground and can keep himself from being subbed this could end up being the fight of the night.

Brad Morris vs Cain Velasquez:

I don't really know either of these two guys but because of his name I'm going to pick Cain by chokeslam from hell. Especially cause he's repping AZ :D!

Kuniyoshi Hironaka vs Jonathon Goulet:

Hironaka has had a rough start to his UFC career due mostly to two of his first 3 fights being against legit top 5 170 pounders in alves and fitch but this should be a good fight for him to begin establishing his place in the UFC WW division. Goulet is a very solid all around fighter with a lot of experience but I feel like Hironaka has a much better ground game and is the superior athlete. Look for a solid decision win from Hironaka, possibly a sub if goulet makes a bad mistake.



The event really lacks a strong main card, GSP vs serra is going to be fun but other than that I really don't see much. In fact, I would bump Kalib vs nate, McCarthy vs Bisping, and Bocek vs Danzig all to the Undercard and move Maia vs Herman, Doerkson vs MacDonald, and either Hironaka vs Goulet or Clementi vs Stout all to the main card. In any case, it could very easily turn into a great event so I'll be watching it.


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